Tina Adatia, Fixed Income Strategist: This year we've described the secular framework as dealing with disruptions. So Joachim, can you talk a little bit about those disruptions and what we're expecting?
Joachim Fels, Global Economic Advisor: So, what are these secular trends that we think will lead to disruption over the next five years or so? Well, here are five of them.
The first one is China, you know, with its economic and geopolitical ambitions. So we think that will be very disruptive. Populism, second theme, not a new theme.
But we are now seeing how populism increasingly rhymes with protectionism, right? So think about the trade war. And so the risk of deglobalization is really increasing further.
Third disruptor is demographics. Again you can ask, "Well, that's been around for a long time. We know about population aging and about rising longevity.”
But I think we're now at the stage where it can become disruptive, because the global saving glut keeps increasing. This is keeping interest rates low, lower for longer, and the longer that lasts, the more disruptive it can become.
Then technology, well, I think everybody knows technology is disruptive.
But I think we're seeing more and more of that in the corporate sector. So there are a lot of winners and losers that we have to take into account.
And then finally, financial market vulnerability. This is something that has been building in the course of this expansion. We are worried about certain aspects of market structure, and we think that this could come back to haunt us in that next downturn.
Tina: Thank you Joachim. You've got any other questions, please contact your PIMCO representative. Thank you and have a good day.
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