Volatility, inflation, and geopolitical strain have countries and businesses focusing on defense. We argue for building resilience in portfolios in this fragmenting world, and delve into risks and opportunities we foresee over the next five years.

Active management and risk awareness may help investors navigate a global economy where inflation becomes “too hot” and growth “too cold.”

A long-term approach can help investors position for opportunities in a volatile and rapidly advancing business cycle.

Investors should prepare to navigate unfamiliar terrain as the macroeconomic landscape undergoes dramatic transformations over the secular horizon.

We expect growth and inflation to peak in 2021 in developed economies, and we are focused on liquidity and flexibility in our portfolios.

The global economy is poised for a strong rebound, but investors should beware of market volatility stemming from pronounced inflation fears.

Vaccinations and fiscal support should lift the global economy in 2021, but several risks call for careful portfolio positioning.

The pandemic has amplified long-term disruptors, making credit selection and alpha generation increasingly important.

Major economies are contracting, but extraordinary policy responses could limit severe recessions to this year.