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Assessing Inflation: Theories, Policies and Portfolios
Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy

Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy

Beyond Brexit: Outlook and Risks for the U.K. Economy

Despite seeing major market swings following the 2016 Brexit referendum, we don’t expect Britain’s departure from the European Union (EU) to have any major economic effects in our baseline outlook for 2021 and beyond. Far more important are COVID-19, fiscal policy, and bigger questions around future productivity growth.

In Europe the Crisis Policy Response Is Substantial, But More Is Likely Needed
Fiscal and Monetary Together
UK flag in front of Big Ben

The End of the Beginning

The End of the Beginning

While the election result reduces Brexit uncertainty significantly, it doesn’t eliminate it. Will there be an extension of the transition period? How will any deal affect the economy? In the meantime, UK banks and sterling, especially wounded since the 2016 referendum, still offer value, while low-yielding gilts look unattractive relative to other government debt, such as U.S. Treasuries.

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Peder Beck-Friis

Portfolio Manager, Global Macro

Dr. Beck-Friis is a senior vice president and portfolio manager in the London office. He focuses on identifying global macroeconomic trends, with a particular emphasis on Europe. He is a member of the European Portfolio Committee. Prior to joining PIMCO in 2017, he worked at Goldman Sachs, first within Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM) in New York and later as an economist in London. He has 10 years of macro research experience and holds a master's degree and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Oxford. He received his undergraduate degree in mathematics and economics from the University of Edinburgh.